A S I A N J U G G E R N A U T -- The Rise China, India and Japan

By

Brahma Chellaney

 

Twentieth Century has seen the emergence of Asia as a behemoth, notably China, India and Japan as economic power houses  chartering a new course of world history, economics and politics.  At the same time, they also face entrenched territorial and maritime disputes, sharpening competition over scarce resources, improved military capabilities, increasingly fervent nationalism and the spread of religious extremism.

Challeney says that there are many books on China-India and China-Japan relationships. But Asian Juggernaut is the first wide-ranging study that examines Asia in totality, employing the broader framework to focus on the critical China-India--Japan strategic triangle. In that sense, the author says the book is a pioneering study, dissecting Asia’s major challenges.   

Japan and China remain the world’s largest creditor nations, with the latter having amassed $2.2 trillion by 2009 in the world’s biggest holding of foreign-exchange reserves. Asia is on the right track, with its high GDP growth rates and it is  expected to remain the main engine driving global economic growth in the foreseeable future.

Much as Asia is on the higher growth trajectory, the U.S as the sole economic and military superpower, and its interests centre in maintaining a stable balance’ in ‘the East Asian littoral’, given the likelihood that ‘a military competitor with a formidable base, will emerge in the region’, say China. Washington would not want Japan or India to kowtow to a China seeking to supplant the United States as the leading force in Asia. America would want to hold China on its tender hooks by a combination of powers ranged against that country. This is the rationale behind the formation of the Quad alliance, though it is yet to take a military dimension.

In the economic sphere, though both India and China have attained massive progress, in the author’s view, India’s progress is much more stable because of its open society and functioning democracy whereas, China’s is faster but prone to mishaps as evidenced by a large number of violent protests by workers and its overwhelming reliance on export led growth. India’s economic growth is hampered by its mammoth red-tape hidden, non-functional bureaucracy and it’s  suspicion of capitalist oriented growth.

With economic growth and prosperity, longevity of population in both Japan and China have increased affecting economic output along with health care costs.  India on the other hand retains demographic advantage with a younger age population and, therefore, the possibility of greater economic output.  China with its focused approach towards both economic and strategic and military targets has achieved goals.

 

India is mired in corruption-ridden bureaucracy, its hangover of ‘socialistic pattern of society’  and poor educational background of its citizens. Chinese Communist Party periodically dismisses hundreds corrupt officials from both party and office without questions being raised from any quarters.

India and China face major environmental problems too in terms of air pollution, contamination of water, waste mismanagement, and the destruction of forests, mangroves and other natural habitats. in order of their vulnerability to violent conflict and societal dysfunction on the basis of 12 specific social, economic, political and military indicators. Similarly, the author informs us that refugee flows, rising demographic pressures, factionalized elites, legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance’, deteriorating public services, existence of a security apparatus that operates as a state within a state.

In terms of military modernization, China remains at the top with preparation and production of new weapons and system in all the three wings of its force.  Japan with its pacifist constitution is constrained in this respect.  India with its pretensions of becoming a superpower remains the world’s greatest importer of military hardware, even after years of attempts of import substitution, though recent initiatives such as ‘make in India’ has made some headway.

Even with increased prosperity, asian countries face varied problems such as fervent nationalism, environmental degradation and resort to asymmetric warfare to settle territorial disputes that it needs either emergence of an Asian monolith or an asian balance of forces to settle them.